Research
Working Papers
Overvalued Equity and Investment: A Regression Discontinuity Approach (Dec 2023) Revise & resubmit, Journal of Finance
How does overvalued equity impact corporate investment? This paper examines a margin trading deregulation in China to identify substantial exogenous overpricing. Using a regression discontinuity design that exploits the proprietary ranking procedure, I find that firms with overpriced stocks due to quasi-random experiment eligibility double their investment. Moreover, overvalued firms increase both equity and debt issues, ruling out the financing channel as the sole mechanism. Consistent with the informational channel, investment reacts to overvaluation more when firms struggle to detect mispricing or when they have a stronger incentive to learn from the market.
Conferences: Wellington Finance Summit 2024
Contrary to the findings of early empirical studies (e.g., Botosan, 1997), we document a robust positive relation between disclosure level and the implied cost of capital, using a substantially larger sample constructed through textual analysis. We attribute this result to a bias in the implied cost of capital that is positively correlated with idiosyncratic volatility and, consequently, with information about idiosyncratic risks contained in firm disclosures. By proposing and applying two methods to mitigate this bias, we confirm a null effect of disclosure level on expected returns, aligning with modern asset pricing theory. Our findings cast doubt on the notion that greater disclosure reduces the cost of capital and have important implications for the use of the implied cost of capital as a proxy for expected returns in future research.
Conferences: FARS 2025 (scheduled), CFEA 2024, HARC 2023, AES Weekly Webinars 2023
Reputation Incentives in Credit Card Debt Repayment: Evidence from a Field Experiment with Grace Wang and the BOCOM Research Center (draft available soon)